Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kyoji Horiguchi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kyoji Horiguchi
oldest →W
SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25L
KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26 Ali Bagautinov
oldest →W
vs John Lineker · Feb 14L
vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15W
vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kyoji HoriguchiMetricAli Bagautinov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.64Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-0.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kyoji HoriguchiAli Bagautinov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +23.7|Blue -23.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +41.0|Blue -41.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kyoji HoriguchiTargetAli Bagautinov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control2:05
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:54Control
Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns2
Control1:58
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 3Kyoji Horiguchi edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns1
Control0:29
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
