Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24 Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18W
vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19L
KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricJoanna Jedrzejczyk
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.68Δ 3.71 — meaningful gap+3.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Carla EsparzaJoanna Jedrzejczyk
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +69.5|Blue -69.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Carla EsparzaTargetJoanna Jedrzejczyk
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds
Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:49
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:20
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
