Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dan Hardy is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Duane Ludwig has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Duane Ludwig has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Dan Hardy has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan Hardy
oldest →L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10L
KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10L
vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11L
SUBvs Chris Lytle · Aug 11W
vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12 Duane LudwigL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 10W
vs Nick Osipczak · Nov 10W
vs Amir Sadollah · Aug 11L
SUBvs Josh Neer · Jan 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan HardyMetricDuane Ludwig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.98Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap+1.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dan HardyDuane Ludwig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Hardy(6 fights)Duane Ludwig(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +138.5|Blue -138.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +159.0|Blue -159.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dan HardyTargetDuane Ludwig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dan Hardy edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control1:28
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
