Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Frankie Edgar has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Frankie EdgarL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21L
KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22 Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Frankie EdgarMetricBrian Ortega
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95Δ 3.49 — meaningful gap-2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Frankie EdgarBrian Ortega
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -48.1|Blue +48.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +210.0|Blue -210.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Frankie EdgarTargetBrian Ortega
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
