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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
John Makdessi won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1476
John Makdessi
Elo1358

John MakdessivsShane CampbellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

John Makdessi won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:53

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsShane Campbell: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(65.3%)

Actual result: John Makdessi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Shane Campbell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • John Makdessi has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi
Red Corner
VS
Shane Campbell
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1476
Elo
1358
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'0"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23
latest
Shane CampbellL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Elias Silverio · Aug 15
L
vs James Krause · Feb 16
L
SUBvs Erik Koch · May 16
L
KOvs Felipe Silva · Aug 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricShane Campbell
5.52
Strikes / min
3.99
4.15
Strikes absorbed / min
3.19
68%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.36
86%
Takedown defense
82%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.37evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1500Strikes51.8 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.1 vs 0.0
John MakdessiShane Campbell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Makdessi(10 fights)Shane Campbell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +118.1|Blue -118.1
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -47.0|Blue +47.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetShane Campbell

By target zone

39
48% acc · 83%
Head
5
18% acc · 20%
7
54% acc · 15%
Body
7
50% acc · 28%
1
33% acc · 2%
Leg
13
87% acc · 52%

By position

26
46% acc · 55%
Distance
24
44% acc · 96%
6
46% acc · 13%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 4%
15
52% acc · 32%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Makdessi rounds
0
even
0
Shane Campbell rounds
Round 1John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes47
Takedowns0
Control1:07
Knockdowns2
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
47 / 98
Sig Strikes
25 / 57
47%
Sig Str %
43%
59 / 114
Total Strikes
25 / 57
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 3
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:07
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Shane Campbell25 / 5725 / 570 / 30
1John Makdessi47 / 9859 / 1140 / 20

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20

Shane Campbell

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5