Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fernie Garcia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brady Hiestand has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brady HiestandW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Ricky Turcios · Aug 21W
KOvs Batgerel Danaa · Apr 23W
SUBvs Garrett Armfield · Jun 24 Fernie GarciaL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Journey Newson · May 22L
vs Rinya Nakamura · Aug 23L
KOvs Hyder Amil · Feb 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brady HiestandMetricFernie Garcia
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.05evenly matched on net striking-1.75
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brady HiestandFernie Garcia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brady Hiestand(4 fights)Fernie Garcia(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +27.2|Blue -27.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +252.0|Blue -252.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brady HiestandTargetFernie Garcia
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Brady Hiestand edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:25
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:53Control
Round 2Brady Hiestand edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:25
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:29Control
Round 3Brady Hiestand edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control4:24
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
