Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Jamie Varner has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe Lauzon
oldest →L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19 Jamie VarnerL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14L
KOvs James Krause · May 14L
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe LauzonMetricJamie Varner
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.55Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap+0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Joe LauzonJamie Varner
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Jamie Varner(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +137.9|Blue -137.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Joe LauzonTargetJamie Varner
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jamie Varner edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Jamie Varner edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control2:01
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 3Jamie Varner edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:08
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:51Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
