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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1534

Calvin KattarvsSteve GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCalvin Kattar: Pressure fightervsSteve Garcia: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(85.5%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Calvin Kattar is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Steve Garcia has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Steve Garcia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Calvin Kattar

Red Corner

Steve Garcia

Blue Corner

+118

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1474

Elo

1534

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Calvin KattarL4 streak

oldest →

vs Giga Chikadze · Jan 22

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

latest

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Calvin KattarMetricSteve Garcia

4.41

Strikes / min

5.39

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

54%

Strike defense

59%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.86

77%

Takedown defense

88%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.14Δ 5.41 — meaningful gap+3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Calvin KattarSteve Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Calvin Kattar(10 fights)Steve Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.3|Blue +60.3

Recent Form

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Calvin KattarTargetSteve Garcia

By target zone

18% acc · 81%

Head

25% acc · 61%

60% acc · 12%

Body

79% acc · 27%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

77% acc · 12%

By position

21% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Calvin Kattar rounds

even

Steve Garcia rounds

Round 1Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 123

Sig Strikes

85 / 250

22%

Sig Str %

33%

26 / 123

Total Strikes

85 / 250

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Garcia	22 / 71	22 / 71	0 / 0
1	Calvin Kattar	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 0
2	Steve Garcia	32 / 87	32 / 87	0 / 0
2	Calvin Kattar	5 / 47	5 / 47	0 / 0
3	Steve Garcia	31 / 92	31 / 92	0 / 0
3	Calvin Kattar	13 / 50	13 / 50	0 / 0

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10