Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25 Gunnar Nelson
oldest →W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricGunnar Nelson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.16Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Leon EdwardsGunnar Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -16.8|Blue +16.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Leon EdwardsTargetGunnar Nelson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control2:18
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:26Control
Round 2Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:30
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:41
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
