Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lorenz Larkin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Lorenz Larkin has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Neil Magny
oldest →L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25 Lorenz Larkin
oldest →L
vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14W
KOvs John Howard · Jan 15W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16W
vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Neil MagnyMetricLorenz Larkin
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Neil MagnyLorenz Larkin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Neil Magny(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +14.8|Blue -14.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +71.0|Blue -71.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Neil MagnyTargetLorenz Larkin
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Lorenz Larkin edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns0
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
