Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Andrei Arlovski has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francis Ngannou has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24 Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricFrancis Ngannou
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.17
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Andrei ArlovskiFrancis Ngannou
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.5|Blue +3.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +97.0|Blue -97.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Andrei ArlovskiTargetFrancis Ngannou
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
