← All fights/Event page

Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1369

Khabib NurmagomedovvsDarrell HorcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:38

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(89.1%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Darrell Horcher (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Darrell Horcher

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+650

(13%)

1493

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Darrell HorcherL2 streak

oldest →

vs Devin Powell · Jun 17

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 17

SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricDarrell Horcher

4.10

Strikes / min

2.05

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.21

65%

Strike defense

39%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.35

84%

Takedown defense

47%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.35Δ 4.51 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khabib NurmagomedovDarrell Horcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Darrell Horcher(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.0|Blue -124.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetDarrell Horcher

By target zone

71% acc · 97%

Head

17% acc · 67%

Body

33% acc · 17%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

30% acc · 4%

Distance

19% acc · 83%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

76% acc · 95%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Darrell Horcher rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:21

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns1

Control3:12

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 105

Sig Strikes

6 / 27

69.5%

Sig Str %

29%

107 / 139

Total Strikes

18 / 42

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:33

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darrell Horcher	4 / 22	12 / 31	0 / 0
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	27 / 44	33 / 51	1 / 2
2	Darrell Horcher	2 / 5	6 / 11	0 / 0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	48 / 61	74 / 88	1 / 1

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Darrell Horcher

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4