Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paulo Costa is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Luke Rockhold has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).
- Luke Rockhold has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo CostaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25W
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26 Luke RockholdL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15L
KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16W
KOvs David Branch · Sep 17L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18L
KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo CostaMetricLuke Rockhold
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.19Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paulo CostaLuke Rockhold
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Costa(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +88.5|Blue -88.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -840.0|Blue +840.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paulo CostaTargetLuke Rockhold
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control2:48
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns1
Control0:17
23Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 3Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control2:23
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
