Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke BarnattL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14L
vs Sean Strickland · May 14L
vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14 Andrew CraigL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12L
vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14L
KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke BarnattMetricAndrew Craig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.56Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Luke BarnattAndrew Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Luke BarnattTargetAndrew Craig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Luke Barnatt edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:18
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Luke Barnatt edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:27
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
