Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Natal has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17 Joao Zeferino
oldest →L
vs Elias Silverio · Sep 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricJoao Zeferino
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.62Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap-1.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael NatalJoao Zeferino
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Joao Zeferino(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +8.7|Blue -8.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.4|Blue +48.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael NatalTargetJoao Zeferino
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Joao Zeferino edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:11
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control1:53
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control2:48
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
