Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Hadley has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jake Hadley (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Hadley
oldest →W
KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Mar 23L
vs Charles Johnson · May 24W
vs Caolan Loughran · Jul 24L
vs Cameron Smotherman · Oct 24 Allan Nascimento
oldest →L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21W
SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25L
DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake HadleyMetricAllan Nascimento
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake HadleyAllan Nascimento
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Hadley(7 fights)Allan Nascimento(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -27.5|Blue +27.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake HadleyTargetAllan Nascimento
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:23
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:59Control
Round 2Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:25
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:04Control
Round 3Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control2:02
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
