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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Daukaus won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1447

Elo1471

Shamil AbdurakhimovvsChris DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Daukaus won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:23

Model Prediction: Chris Daukaus wins(81.8%)

Actual result: Chris Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Daukaus at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Daukaus enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chris Daukaus is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Shamil Abdurakhimov has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shamil Abdurakhimov

Red Corner

Chris Daukaus

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1447

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shamil AbdurakhimovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 18

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Sep 19

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Mar 22

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 23

latest

Chris DaukausL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Feb 21

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Dec 21

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 22

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 22

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shamil AbdurakhimovMetricChris Daukaus

2.41

Strikes / min

6.05

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

55%

Strike defense

55%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

0.00

45%

Takedown defense

100%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shamil AbdurakhimovChris Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)Chris Daukaus(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.1|Blue +24.1

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +532.0|Blue -532.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shamil AbdurakhimovTargetChris Daukaus

By target zone

27% acc · 57%

Head

39% acc · 89%

55% acc · 26%

Body

67% acc · 5%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

35% acc · 96%

Distance

31% acc · 47%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

Ground

60% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shamil Abdurakhimov rounds

even

Chris Daukaus rounds

Round 1Chris Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Chris Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 63

Sig Strikes

38 / 93

32.5%

Sig Str %

39%

23 / 63

Total Strikes

38 / 93

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Daukaus	28 / 65	28 / 65	0 / 0
1	Shamil Abdurakhimov	19 / 47	19 / 47	0 / 0
2	Chris Daukaus	10 / 28	10 / 28	0 / 0
2	Shamil Abdurakhimov	4 / 16	4 / 16	0 / 0

Shamil Abdurakhimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11

Chris Daukaus

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8