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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Movsar Evloev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1536

Arnold AllenvsMovsar EvloevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · Saturday, January 20, 2024Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Movsar Evloev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsMovsar Evloev: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Movsar Evloev wins(83.3%)

Actual result: Movsar Evloev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Movsar Evloev at -218 American odds

+$46 profit

$146 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Movsar Evloev

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-218

(69%)

1511

Elo

1536

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Oct 22

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Movsar EvloevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Jun 21

vs Dan Ige · Jun 22

vs Diego Lopes · May 23

vs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricMovsar Evloev

3.47

Strikes / min

3.91

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

60%

Strike defense

61%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

4.78

71%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenMovsar Evloev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Movsar Evloev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.2|Blue +25.2

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetMovsar Evloev

By target zone

36% acc · 69%

Head

35% acc · 69%

71% acc · 29%

Body

92% acc · 24%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

37% acc · 78%

Distance

41% acc · 88%

75% acc · 15%

Clinch

71% acc · 10%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Movsar Evloev rounds

Round 1Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:03

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 140

Sig Strikes

51 / 118

40.7%

Sig Str %

43%

61 / 143

Total Strikes

72 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 17

—

TD %

46%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

3:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Movsar Evloev	13 / 28	22 / 38	2 / 9	0
1	Arnold Allen	12 / 40	13 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Movsar Evloev	21 / 47	25 / 52	2 / 2	0
2	Arnold Allen	18 / 42	18 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Movsar Evloev	17 / 43	25 / 51	1 / 6	0
3	Arnold Allen	29 / 58	30 / 60	0 / 0	1

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Movsar Evloev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10