Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Arnold Allen has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Arnold Allen
oldest →L
vs Max Holloway · Apr 23L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24W
vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24W
DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26 Yaotzin Meza
oldest →L
KOvs Chad Mendes · Dec 12W
SUBvs John Albert · Jul 13L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jun 14W
vs Damian Stasiak · Apr 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Arnold AllenMetricYaotzin Meza
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Arnold AllenYaotzin Meza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Arnold Allen(10 fights)Yaotzin Meza(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +154.7|Blue -154.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +25.0|Blue -25.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Arnold AllenTargetYaotzin Meza
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Arnold Allen edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:40
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 2Arnold Allen edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control0:53
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Arnold Allen edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:39
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
