Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa threatens submissions; TJ Brown has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ BrownL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22L
SUBvs Bill Algeo · Apr 23L
SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23 Charles RosaL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21W
vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ BrownMetricCharles Rosa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.48Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
TJ BrownCharles Rosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Brown(8 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +50.1|Blue -50.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +161.0|Blue -161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
TJ BrownTargetCharles Rosa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1TJ Brown edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns3
Control1:36
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 2TJ Brown edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control3:34
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 3TJ Brown edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:29
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
