Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francis CarmontL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13L
vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14L
KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14 CB Dollaway
oldest →L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15L
KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15W
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18L
KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francis CarmontMetricCB Dollaway
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Francis CarmontCB Dollaway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francis Carmont(9 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -137.8|Blue +137.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +36.0|Blue -36.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Francis CarmontTargetCB Dollaway
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:34
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:14
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:38Control
Round 3CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:38
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
