← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rinat Fakhretdinov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1540

Elo1508

Rinat FakhretdinovvsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Rinat Fakhretdinov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRinat Fakhretdinov: WrestlervsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins(81.2%)

Actual result: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinat Fakhretdinov at -395 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rinat Fakhretdinov has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

-395

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1540

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rinat FakhretdinovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andreas Michailidis · Jun 22

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 22

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 23

vs Carlos Leal · Oct 24

KOvs Andreas Gustafsson · Sep 25

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Warlley Alves · Jan 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rinat FakhretdinovMetricNicolas Dalby

5.03

Strikes / min

3.88

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

54%

Strike defense

52%

3.91

TDs / 15 min

0.90

91%

Takedown defense

59%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rinat FakhretdinovNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rinat Fakhretdinov(6 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.0|Blue -32.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rinat FakhretdinovTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

47% acc · 78%

Head

38% acc · 55%

77% acc · 15%

Body

76% acc · 38%

63% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

45% acc · 72%

Distance

40% acc · 58%

76% acc · 28%

Clinch

72% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rinat Fakhretdinov rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:36

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 2Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:23

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:18

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 134

Sig Strikes

66 / 134

50%

Sig Str %

48%

99 / 173

Total Strikes

123 / 195

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 4

55.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:17

Ctrl Time

3:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolas Dalby	17 / 41	31 / 58	0 / 2
1	Rinat Fakhretdinov	27 / 52	40 / 66	1 / 3
2	Nicolas Dalby	31 / 53	48 / 71	0 / 1
2	Rinat Fakhretdinov	24 / 46	37 / 62	2 / 2
3	Nicolas Dalby	18 / 40	44 / 66	0 / 1
3	Rinat Fakhretdinov	17 / 36	22 / 45	2 / 6

Rinat Fakhretdinov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14