Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Charles Rosa threatens submissions; Justin Jaynes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Justin Jaynes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Charles Rosa has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles RosaL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22 Justin JaynesL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 20L
SUBvs Gavin Tucker · Aug 20L
KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles RosaMetricJustin Jaynes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.78Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-1.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Charles RosaJustin Jaynes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Rosa(10 fights)Justin Jaynes(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +27.8|Blue -27.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Charles RosaTargetJustin Jaynes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Charles Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control0:27
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2Justin Jaynes edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:21
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:16Control
Round 3Justin Jaynes edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:49
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:32Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
