Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Danny Castillo has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Sass
oldest →W
SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11W
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12L
SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12 Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul SassMetricDanny Castillo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.37Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paul SassDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Sass(5 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.9|Blue +3.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +6.0|Blue -6.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paul SassTargetDanny Castillo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:28Control
Round 2Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:16Control
Round 3Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
