Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Jared Vanderaa · Feb 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24 Jake CollierL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23L
vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricJake Collier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Andrei ArlovskiJake Collier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +18.6|Blue -18.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Andrei ArlovskiTargetJake Collier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:01
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:54Control
Round 2Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control0:00
36Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:21Control
Round 3Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:23Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
