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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Misha Cirkunov won · SUB R1

Elo1437

Elo1517

Misha CirkunovvsJimmy CruteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Misha Cirkunov won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:38

Style matchupMisha Cirkunov: WrestlervsJimmy Crute: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Misha Cirkunov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Misha Cirkunov threatens submissions; Jimmy Crute has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Misha Cirkunov has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Misha Cirkunov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov

Red Corner

Jimmy Crute

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1437

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Mar 19

KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22

latest

Jimmy CruteW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25

SUBvs Ivan Erslan · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricJimmy Crute

3.86

Strikes / min

4.15

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

57%

Strike defense

42%

4.15

TDs / 15 min

4.39

76%

Takedown defense

58%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Misha CirkunovJimmy Crute

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Jimmy Crute(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -80.2|Blue +80.2

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetJimmy Crute

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

58% acc · 90%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 17%

Distance

67% acc · 10%

67% acc · 33%

Clinch

80% acc · 19%

75% acc · 50%

Ground

56% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Misha Cirkunov rounds

even

Jimmy Crute rounds

Round 1Jimmy Crute edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:28

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

21 / 35

60%

Sig Str %

60%

22 / 29

Total Strikes

28 / 45

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:28

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jimmy Crute	21 / 35	28 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Misha Cirkunov	6 / 10	22 / 29	1 / 2	1

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Jimmy Crute

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10