Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexandre Pantoja
oldest →W
vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23W
vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24W
SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25L
KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25 Steve Erceg
oldest →L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25W
vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25W
DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26L
KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexandre PantojaMetricSteve Erceg
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexandre PantojaSteve Erceg
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Steve Erceg(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +25.2|Blue -25.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexandre PantojaTargetSteve Erceg
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
4
Alexandre Pantoja rounds
Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns2
Control2:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns3
Control1:25
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns3
Control1:53
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Steve Erceg edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:11
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Alexandre Pantoja edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control2:46
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
