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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Lemos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1525

Amanda LemosvsIasmin LucindoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Lemos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAmanda Lemos: Well-roundedvsIasmin Lucindo: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Amanda Lemos wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Amanda Lemos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Lemos at +116 American odds

+$116 profit

$216 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Lemos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Iasmin Lucindo enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Iasmin Lucindo has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Lemos

Red Corner

Iasmin Lucindo

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-136

(58%)

1488

Elo

1525

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda LemosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Zhang Weili · Aug 23

vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24

vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25

vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26

latest

Iasmin LucindoW5 streak

oldest →

vs Brogan Walker · Apr 23

SUBvs Polyana Viana · Aug 23

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 24

vs Marina Rodriguez · Oct 24

vs Angela Hill · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda LemosMetricIasmin Lucindo

2.75

Strikes / min

3.22

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

45%

Strike defense

62%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

2.28

63%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda LemosIasmin Lucindo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Lemos(10 fights)Iasmin Lucindo(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.5|Blue +36.5

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda LemosTargetIasmin Lucindo

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

17% acc · 50%

67% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 50%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

0% acc

By position

50% acc · 58%

Distance

8% acc · 25%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

67% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Lemos rounds

even

Iasmin Lucindo rounds

Round 1Amanda Lemos edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:40

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Amanda Lemos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:41

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:37

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 21

Sig Strikes

4 / 16

56%

Sig Str %

14.7%

30 / 42

Total Strikes

40 / 56

3 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

77.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:58

Ctrl Time

4:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Iasmin Lucindo	0 / 4	11 / 17	0 / 0
1	Amanda Lemos	3 / 5	8 / 10	1 / 1
2	Iasmin Lucindo	0 / 3	12 / 15	0 / 0
2	Amanda Lemos	7 / 12	10 / 16	1 / 3
3	Iasmin Lucindo	4 / 9	17 / 24	1 / 1
3	Amanda Lemos	2 / 4	12 / 16	1 / 1

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15

Iasmin Lucindo

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7