Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fabricio Werdum
oldest →W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20 Alistair Overeem
oldest →W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fabricio WerdumMetricAlistair Overeem
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.23
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Fabricio WerdumAlistair Overeem
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +175.0|Blue -175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Fabricio WerdumTargetAlistair Overeem
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:56Control
Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control2:39
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
