Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Antonina Shevchenko has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20L
vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21L
vs Taila Santos · Sep 21L
vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22 Antonina Shevchenko
oldest →L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20W
KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20L
SUBvs Andrea Lee · May 21L
KOvs Casey O'Neill · Oct 21W
vs Cortney Casey · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roxanne ModafferiMetricAntonina Shevchenko
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.35Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap+0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Roxanne ModafferiAntonina Shevchenko
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -77.9|Blue +77.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +3.2|Blue -3.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +27.0|Blue -27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Roxanne ModafferiTargetAntonina Shevchenko
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Roxanne Modafferi rounds
2
Antonina Shevchenko rounds
Round 1Antonina Shevchenko edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control1:59
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Roxanne Modafferi edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control3:46
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Antonina Shevchenko edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control3:15
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
