Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Baudot enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Alan Baudot has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tom Aspinall has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Aspinall
oldest →L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24 Alan BaudotL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · Jul 21L
vs Parker Porter · Feb 22L
KOvs Josh Parisian · Jun 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricAlan Baudot
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+4.01Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tom AspinallAlan Baudot
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Alan Baudot(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +89.9|Blue -89.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tom AspinallTargetAlan Baudot
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:30
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
