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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

John Castaneda won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1489

John CastanedavsMuin GafurovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Castaneda won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Castaneda: Pressure fightervsMuin Gafurov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: John Castaneda wins(63.8%)

Actual result: John Castaneda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Castaneda at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

John Castaneda

Red Corner

Muin Gafurov

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1495

Elo

1489

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Castaneda

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23

vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25

DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26

latest

Muin Gafurov

oldest →

SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24

vs Rinya Nakamura · Jan 25

SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John CastanedaMetricMuin Gafurov

4.95

Strikes / min

3.36

5.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

54%

Strike defense

55%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.57

75%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John CastanedaMuin Gafurov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Castaneda(9 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.3|Blue -6.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John CastanedaTargetMuin Gafurov

By target zone

41% acc · 75%

Head

33% acc · 74%

50% acc · 10%

Body

69% acc · 18%

86% acc · 15%

Leg

83% acc · 8%

By position

45% acc · 93%

Distance

36% acc · 77%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

56% acc · 23%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Castaneda rounds

even

Muin Gafurov rounds

Round 1John Castaneda edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:51

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Muin Gafurov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:40

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3John Castaneda edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:45

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 88

Sig Strikes

61 / 157

45.3%

Sig Str %

40%

70 / 121

Total Strikes

93 / 204

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 6

49.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:16

Ctrl Time

1:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Muin Gafurov	21 / 44	21 / 44	0 / 3
1	John Castaneda	18 / 32	25 / 40	0 / 0
2	Muin Gafurov	29 / 86	44 / 103	0 / 1
2	John Castaneda	15 / 40	25 / 51	1 / 3
3	Muin Gafurov	11 / 27	28 / 57	0 / 2
3	John Castaneda	7 / 16	20 / 30	2 / 3

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Muin Gafurov

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5