Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Paul Bradley has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Rafael Natal has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricPaul Bradley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.62Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap-1.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael NatalPaul Bradley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Paul Bradley(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +9.9|Blue -9.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael NatalTargetPaul Bradley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Paul Bradley edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:33Control
Round 3Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:03
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
