Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Marcin Tybura has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Marcin Tybura has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26 Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derrick LewisMetricMarcin Tybura
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derrick LewisMarcin Tybura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +161.0|Blue -161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derrick LewisTargetMarcin Tybura
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control2:10
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:20Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:50Control
Round 3Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:02Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
