Welterweight

3 Rounds

Igor Araujo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1353

Igor AraujovsDanny MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · Saturday, March 8, 2014London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Igor Araujo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Igor Araujo wins(77.5%)

Actual result: Igor Araujo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Igor Araujo at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Mitchell has 78pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Araujo

Red Corner

Danny Mitchell

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1355

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor AraujoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Oct 13

KOvs George Sullivan · Sep 14

vs Sean Strickland · Jul 15

latest

Danny Mitchell

oldest →

vs Sai Wang · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor AraujoMetricDanny Mitchell

1.52

Strikes / min

2.53

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

49%

Strike defense

52%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.00

22%

Takedown defense

100%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

3.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.34Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Igor AraujoDanny Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Igor Araujo(4 fights)Danny Mitchell(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor AraujoTargetDanny Mitchell

By target zone

24% acc · 58%

Head

39% acc · 50%

71% acc · 42%

Body

80% acc · 22%

0% acc

Leg

83% acc · 28%

By position

20% acc · 17%

Distance

40% acc · 33%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 28%

35% acc · 75%

Ground

50% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Igor Araujo rounds

even

Danny Mitchell rounds

Round 1Igor Araujo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control3:23

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control3:29

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Danny Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:58

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 37

Sig Strikes

18 / 34

32%

Sig Str %

38%

138 / 204

Total Strikes

70 / 102

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:50

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Mitchell	0 / 1	9 / 10	0 / 0	3
1	Igor Araujo	3 / 10	47 / 57	0 / 1	0
2	Danny Mitchell	9 / 13	14 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Igor Araujo	2 / 6	58 / 72	0 / 1	0
3	Danny Mitchell	9 / 20	47 / 73	0 / 1	2
3	Igor Araujo	7 / 21	33 / 75	0 / 1	1

Igor Araujo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4

Danny Mitchell

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2