Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Andrei Arlovski has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Andrei Arlovski has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24 Jared VanderaaL4 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21L
SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 22L
KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricJared Vanderaa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.60Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.71
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Andrei ArlovskiJared Vanderaa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +56.2|Blue -56.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Andrei ArlovskiTargetJared Vanderaa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:17Control
Round 3Jared Vanderaa edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:51Control
