Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- TJ Dillashaw has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Aljamain Sterling has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aljamain SterlingW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26 TJ Dillashaw
oldest →W
vs John Lineker · Dec 16W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aljamain SterlingMetricTJ Dillashaw
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.11evenly matched on net striking+1.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Aljamain SterlingTJ Dillashaw
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +28.7|Blue -28.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -259.0|Blue +259.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Aljamain SterlingTargetTJ Dillashaw
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Aljamain Sterling rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns3
Control4:20
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns2
Control2:46
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
