Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
- Michael Johnson has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26 Nate Diaz
oldest →L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricNate Diaz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael JohnsonNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +6.2|Blue -6.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -238.0|Blue +238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael JohnsonTargetNate Diaz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:03
69Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control0:16
63Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
