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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ricky Simon won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1500

Raphael AssuncaovsRicky SimonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ricky Simon won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:14

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsRicky Simon: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ricky Simon wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Ricky Simon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricky Simon at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Ricky Simon

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1496

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Moraes · Feb 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25

vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricRicky Simon

3.22

Strikes / min

3.03

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

66%

Strike defense

61%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

4.49

78%

Takedown defense

76%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoRicky Simon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Ricky Simon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.8|Blue +4.8

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetRicky Simon

By target zone

6% acc · 14%

Head

52% acc · 72%

100% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 22%

71% acc · 71%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

53% acc · 56%

Clinch

Ground

73% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Ricky Simon rounds

Round 1Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:59Control

Round 2Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 25

Sig Strikes

18 / 30

30%

Sig Str %

59.5%

10 / 28

Total Strikes

27 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ricky Simon	8 / 15	17 / 26	2 / 3
1	Raphael Assuncao	4 / 10	7 / 13	0 / 0
2	Ricky Simon	10 / 15	10 / 15	0 / 1
2	Raphael Assuncao	3 / 15	3 / 15	0 / 0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17