Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melvin Guillard
oldest →W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12L
vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14 Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melvin GuillardMetricEvan Dunham
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.11evenly matched on net striking+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Melvin GuillardEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +105.4|Blue -105.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Melvin GuillardTargetEvan Dunham
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns2
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:58Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
