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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Moreno won · U-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1487

Jussier FormigavsBrandon MorenoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Saturday, March 14, 2020Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Brandon Moreno won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jussier Formiga wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jussier Formiga at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Brandon Moreno

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1385

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Nguyen · Feb 18

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricBrandon Moreno

1.42

Strikes / min

3.84

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

64%

Strike defense

59%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

1.36

87%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaBrandon Moreno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Brandon Moreno(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -101.7|Blue +101.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetBrandon Moreno

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

38% acc · 88%

80% acc · 27%

Body

67% acc · 12%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 80%

Distance

33% acc · 61%

0% acc

Clinch

44% acc · 12%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

75% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Brandon Moreno rounds

Round 1Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:58

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:45Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:09

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:05

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 32

Sig Strikes

33 / 82

55.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

61 / 81

Total Strikes

94 / 147

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:12

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Moreno	11 / 26	32 / 49	0 / 1	0
1	Jussier Formiga	3 / 4	11 / 12	0 / 0	1
2	Brandon Moreno	11 / 24	30 / 44	0 / 1	0
2	Jussier Formiga	5 / 9	21 / 28	1 / 6	0
3	Brandon Moreno	11 / 32	32 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Jussier Formiga	7 / 19	29 / 41	0 / 3	0

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18