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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Jake Ellenberger won · U-DEC R3
Elo1493
Diego Sanchez
Elo1367

Diego SanchezvsJake EllenbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Ellenberger at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Jake Ellenberger has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez
Red Corner
VS
Jake Ellenberger
Blue Corner
+320
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-355
(78%)
1493
Elo
1367
44
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez
oldest →
W
vs Craig White · Sep 18
W
KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19
W
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20
L
vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20
latest
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16
L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16
L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17
L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricJake Ellenberger
2.69
Strikes / min
2.47
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
56%
Strike defense
60%
1.51
TDs / 15 min
2.04
46%
Takedown defense
86%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1571Strikes34.9 vs 20.7Takedowns1.4 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.81 vs 0.50Form0.6 vs 1.0
Diego SanchezJake Ellenberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +125.5|Blue -125.5
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +198.0|Blue -198.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetJake Ellenberger

By target zone

17
18% acc · 59%
Head
44
43% acc · 71%
9
50% acc · 31%
Body
10
77% acc · 16%
3
75% acc · 10%
Leg
8
89% acc · 13%

By position

27
25% acc · 93%
Distance
51
50% acc · 82%
0
0% acc
Clinch
7
58% acc · 11%
2
100% acc · 7%
Ground
4
44% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Diego Sanchez rounds
0
even
3
Jake Ellenberger rounds
Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:12Control
Round 3Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control1:08
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
29 / 114
Sig Strikes
62 / 124
24.7%
Sig Str %
50.3%
63 / 158
Total Strikes
78 / 141
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 8
0%
TD %
41.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:08
Ctrl Time
1:39

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jake Ellenberger23 / 5023 / 500 / 30
1Diego Sanchez11 / 4512 / 460 / 10
2Jake Ellenberger19 / 4035 / 571 / 10
2Diego Sanchez6 / 296 / 290 / 00
3Jake Ellenberger20 / 3420 / 341 / 40
3Diego Sanchez12 / 4045 / 830 / 00

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19