Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kyle Kingsbury has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kyle KingsburyL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ricardo Romero · Feb 11W
vs Fabio Maldonado · Jun 11L
vs Stephan Bonnar · Nov 11L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 12L
KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 12 Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kyle KingsburyMetricPatrick Cummins
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.84Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kyle KingsburyPatrick Cummins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kyle Kingsbury(7 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -19.5|Blue +19.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +616.0|Blue -616.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kyle KingsburyTargetPatrick Cummins
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:16
19Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:24Control
Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:08Control
Round 3Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
