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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Robelis Despaigne won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Elo1491
Josh Parisian

Robelis DespaignevsJosh ParisianUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Robelis Despaigne won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:18

Model Prediction: Robelis Despaigne wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Robelis Despaigne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robelis Despaigne at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Robelis Despaigne has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robelis Despaigne
Red Corner
VS
Josh Parisian
Blue Corner
-375
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
1493
Elo
1491
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'7"
Height
6'4"
213.36 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robelis DespaigneL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · May 24
L
vs Austen Lane · Oct 24
latest
Josh ParisianL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Roque Martinez · Jun 21
L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Dec 21
W
KOvs Alan Baudot · Jun 22
L
vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 23
L
SUBvs Martin Buday · Aug 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robelis DespaigneMetricJosh Parisian
2.11
Strikes / min
4.55
2.54
Strikes absorbed / min
4.88
46%
Strike defense
41%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.98
50%
Takedown defense
46%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1473Strikes2.2 vs 4.5Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.20Form0.0 vs -0.6
Robelis DespaigneJosh Parisian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Robelis Despaigne(3 fights)Josh Parisian(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.4|Blue -2.4
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Grappler Score
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robelis DespaigneTargetJosh Parisian

By target zone

7
78% acc · 100%
Head
1
25% acc · 50%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 50%
0
Leg
0

By position

5
71% acc · 71%
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 29%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Robelis Despaigne rounds
0
even
0
Josh Parisian rounds
Round 1Robelis Despaigne edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
7 / 9
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
77%
Sig Str %
40%
7 / 9
Total Strikes
2 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Josh Parisian2 / 52 / 50 / 00
1Robelis Despaigne7 / 97 / 90 / 00

Robelis Despaigne

StanceOrthodox
Height79.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights3

Josh Parisian

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights7