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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Michael Page won · Decision R3
Elo1543
Michael Page
Elo1542
Nursulton Ruziboev

Michael PagevsNursulton RuziboevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Saturday, September 5, 2026Paris, France

Official fight result

Michael Page won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Michael Page

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Michael Page at -183 American odds · hypothetical only

+$55 profit

$155 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Page enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Nursulton Ruziboev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Michael Page has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Michael Page has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Page
Red Corner
VS
Nursulton Ruziboev
Blue Corner
-183
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+152
(40%)
1543
Elo
1542
39
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
200.66 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael PageW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Jun 24
W
vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25
W
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25
W
vs Sam Patterson · Mar 26
latest
Nursulton RuziboevW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Mar 24
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · May 24
W
KOvs Eric McConico · Feb 25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · May 25
W
SUBvs Andrey Pulyaev · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael PageMetricNursulton Ruziboev
2.28
Strikes / min
2.59
1.51
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
62%
Strike defense
48%
0.19
TDs / 15 min
0.75
70%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.77Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.30
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Michael Page(5 fights)Nursulton Ruziboev(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael PageTargetNursulton Ruziboev

By target zone

7
37% acc · 58%
Head
5
19% acc · 63%
2
40% acc · 17%
Body
2
100% acc · 25%
3
75% acc · 25%
Leg
1
100% acc · 13%

By position

11
41% acc · 92%
Distance
3
13% acc · 38%
1
100% acc · 8%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 13%
0
Ground
4
100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Michael Page rounds
0
even
2
Nursulton Ruziboev rounds
Round 1Nursulton Ruziboev edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:20Control
Round 2Michael Page edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:49
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3Nursulton Ruziboev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:17
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:07Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 28
Sig Strikes
8 / 29
49.3%
Sig Str %
34%
49 / 66
Total Strikes
21 / 42
0 / 2
TDs
2 / 3
0%
TD %
66.7%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:06
Ctrl Time
5:28

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nursulton Ruziboev4 / 616 / 181 / 10
1Michael Page4 / 518 / 200 / 11
2Nursulton Ruziboev2 / 142 / 140 / 10
2Michael Page5 / 1317 / 250 / 10
3Nursulton Ruziboev2 / 93 / 101 / 10
3Michael Page3 / 1014 / 210 / 00

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Michael Page
Odds
-183

Market-implied probability

Michael Page 62%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Michael Page (model pick · research)$155
Nursulton Ruziboev$252

62% market-implied · model 55% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Michael Page

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights6

Nursulton Ruziboev

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights7