Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yoel Romero has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yoel RomeroL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17W
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18L
vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18L
vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20 Paulo CostaW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25W
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yoel RomeroMetricPaulo Costa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Yoel RomeroPaulo Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yoel Romero(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -140.3|Blue +140.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Yoel RomeroTargetPaulo Costa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Yoel Romero edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns1
Control0:01
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Yoel Romero edged it
Sig. strikes53
Takedowns0
Control0:05
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
