Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Vicente Luque
oldest →L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricVicente Luque
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael ChiesaVicente Luque
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +24.5|Blue -24.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +66.0|Blue -66.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChiesaTargetVicente Luque
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control1:01
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
