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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jamal Pogues won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Elo1496

Thomas PetersenvsJamal PoguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 3, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamal Pogues won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThomas Petersen: WrestlervsJamal Pogues: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Thomas Petersen wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Jamal Pogues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Petersen has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Petersen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thomas Petersen

Red Corner

Jamal Pogues

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1482

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thomas Petersen

oldest →

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Feb 25

vs Don'Tale Mayes · May 25

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Oct 25

DECvs Guilherme Pat · Apr 26

SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 26

latest

Jamal PoguesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Parisian · Feb 23

vs Mick Parkin · Jul 23

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thomas PetersenMetricJamal Pogues

3.10

Strikes / min

3.57

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

54%

Strike defense

49%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

2.00

87%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thomas PetersenJamal Pogues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thomas Petersen(7 fights)Jamal Pogues(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.3|Blue +14.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thomas PetersenTargetJamal Pogues

By target zone

52% acc · 45%

Head

46% acc · 66%

88% acc · 52%

Body

65% acc · 23%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

67% acc · 93%

Distance

50% acc · 86%

80% acc · 7%

Clinch

69% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thomas Petersen rounds

even

Jamal Pogues rounds

Round 1Jamal Pogues edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:41

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thomas Petersen edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:06

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thomas Petersen edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 86

Sig Strikes

65 / 124

64%

Sig Str %

52.7%

116 / 153

Total Strikes

66 / 125

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamal Pogues	24 / 43	24 / 43	0 / 0
1	Thomas Petersen	9 / 17	46 / 57	1 / 2
2	Jamal Pogues	22 / 35	22 / 35	0 / 0
2	Thomas Petersen	22 / 32	40 / 56	0 / 2
3	Jamal Pogues	19 / 46	20 / 47	0 / 0
3	Thomas Petersen	27 / 37	30 / 40	0 / 2

Thomas Petersen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Jamal Pogues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4