Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25 Pawel Pawlak
oldest →L
vs Peter Sobotta · May 14W
vs Sheldon Westcott · Apr 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricPawel Pawlak
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Leon EdwardsPawel Pawlak
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Pawel Pawlak(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.6|Blue +10.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Leon EdwardsTargetPawel Pawlak
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control2:15
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control2:02
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control2:47
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
