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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Calvin Kattar won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1473

Elo1474

Jeremy StephensvsCalvin KattarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Calvin Kattar won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:49

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsCalvin Kattar: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Calvin Kattar wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Calvin Kattar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Calvin Kattar at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Calvin Kattar has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Calvin Kattar

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1473

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Mar 19

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Calvin KattarL5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricCalvin Kattar

3.13

Strikes / min

4.41

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

0.34

61%

Takedown defense

77%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap-2.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensCalvin Kattar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Calvin Kattar(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +22.0|Blue -22.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetCalvin Kattar

By target zone

36% acc · 42%

Head

35% acc · 62%

75% acc · 16%

Body

92% acc · 23%

92% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

54% acc · 98%

Distance

46% acc · 90%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

Ground

67% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Calvin Kattar rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Calvin Kattar edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 104

Sig Strikes

52 / 113

52%

Sig Str %

47%

57 / 104

Total Strikes

52 / 113

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Calvin Kattar	26 / 66	26 / 66	0 / 1
1	Jeremy Stephens	40 / 64	40 / 64	0 / 0
2	Calvin Kattar	26 / 47	26 / 47	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Stephens	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15